1. Provenance
Record who observed the fact, when, through which method and whether the source is primary, secondary or inferred. A claim without origin fails the first control.
2. Scope
Define place, population, time window and affected decision. A local signal is not extrapolated to another region or date without new evidence.
3. Contradiction
Include the strongest counter-evidence and explain why it does not yet invalidate the hypothesis. Hiding counterexamples turns a clue into advocacy.
4. Expiry
Assign a date or event-based expiry that matches how quickly the phenomenon changes. After that boundary, the agent must verify again.
5. Confidence
Express uncertainty with an observable scale and rationale. Confidence cannot replace evidence or rise because the same origin is repeated.
6. Reversal
State the minimum datum that would force the conclusion to change. If nothing can change it, the signal is not falsifiable.
Frequently asked questions
H/M Blindspot · hogarmas.net
Does the methodology require an AI judge?
No. Deterministic rules or a human can review the controls; no answer depends on a secret generative judge.
How should an anonymous source be handled?
Declare it as anonymous, lower confidence and seek independent corroboration before using it for a high-impact decision.
When should a signal be withdrawn?
When it expires, sufficient counter-evidence appears or its reversal condition is met.